Bruselas ve tiempos más difíciles para España y Europa

POR LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | 9 NOVIEMBRE, 2012

Bruselas no ve la hierba verde al otro lado de la cerca cuando se trata de una recuperación económica. Las previsiones económicas para 2013, que se dieron a conocer hoy, describir un futuro oscuro y lluvioso para España y probablemente el resto de Europa.

Los pronósticos son sólo eso, buenos o malos augurios sobre la base de los principales indicadores. Pero queda por ver si son o no correctos. Pero si las predicciones emitidas por Bruselas se convierten en realidad, esto supondrá un serio problema para España y el resto de Europa. La Comisión Europea prevé que el PIB caiga un 1,6% todavía este año y 1,5% en 2013.

Previsiones del Gobierno español eran más esperanzadoras, con ministros usando frases como “Nosotros salimos de la crisis” y que “hay signos de esperanza”. Estas frases fueron emitidas por la Ministra de Empleo, Fátima Báñez, que había dicho que España vería una contracción del 1,5% para este año y un descenso del 0, 5% para 2013.

Además de la no salida de la crisis, los datos preocupantes hechos públicos por Bruselas se refieren al déficit del gobierno. Las medidas de austeridad adoptadas por España ólo ayudaran a reducir el déficit en un magro 0,2%. Las medidas dolorosas que combinan aumentos de impuestos con recortes en los gastos relacionados con los programas sociales no han funcionado, del modo que se pretendía. El déficit terminará el año en 8%, según la Comisión, pero esta cifra no tiene en cuenta el efecto de la recapitalización de los bancos. Se espera que el déficit español sea mucho más grande.

Para 2013, el déficit fiscal será del 6%, y un 5,8% en 2014. Estas cifras no incluyen de nuevo el rescate del sistema bancario y el posible rescate de España en su conjunto. Como se predijo hace meses, España no será capaz de reducir su déficit al 3% del PIB, que es lo solicitado por Bruselas. Eso nos deja tres posibilidades. La primera consiste en ampliar los plazos para cumplir los objetivos, lo que ha sido exigido por el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) en Bruselas. Esta alternativa está cada vez más fuerte con el apoyo de varios países que están colgando del acantilado de la deuda.

El segundo es pedir a España que haga “esfuerzos” adicionales. Es decir, más austeridad y reducción del gasto, que como se ha visto en Grecia, daría lugar a ninguna solución en absoluto. La mayoría de los economistas esperan que los acuerdos alcanzados en las reuniones futuras incluirán una combinación de ambos austeridad y una extensión a España y los demás países para alcanzar sus objetivos de déficit.

El Ministro de Economía de España, Luis de Guindos, prevé un déficit del 7,3% este año, un 4,5% el próximo año y un 2,8% en 2014, muy por debajo de las proyecciones realizadas por los analistas y los datos oficiales, tanto de Bruselas como el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) para el próximo año y el siguiente.

La Comisión no se pronunció ayer sobre los datos. Es evidente que en todos los pronósticos, Bruselas y el Gobierno español, pesan varias incógnitas, especialmente las relacionadas con el efecto de la subida del IVA (un experimento social real, con el país en recesión) y la amnistía tributaria.

Sin embargo, el Vicepresidente y Comisario de Competencia, Joaquín Almunia, dio algunas pistas en Madrid ayer sobre la situación: los presupuestos públicos para 2013 y sus correspondientes previsiones económicas muestran los esfuerzos desplegados por ambas partes – los ingresos y gastos – pero el cuadro macroeconómico que acompaña está “lejos de tener consenso “.

Almunia también dio a entender que Bruselas tiene la sensación de que España ha negado la evidencia completa sobre la profundidad de la crisis y la necesidad de actuar a fondo. “La reacción retardada es demasiado a menudo asociada con España”, dijo. En su intervención en el Foro de Nueva Economía, el llamó a “ceder al derrotismo”, y explicó que la crisis “tiene una solución, y que se superará y se está empezando a superar”.

“Los árboles no deben impedirnos ver el bosque”, dijo Almunia. Pero las proyecciones de Bruselas que más aproximan a las del gobierno español están relacionadas con la deuda pública E incluso en esa sección las cifras hablan por sí solas: la deuda terminará este año en el 83,7% del PIB, el que viene en el 89,5% y estará en 93,9% del PIB en 2014.

Una cosa es segura: no hay ninguna señal que indique cuando la deuda dejará de crecer. Mientras tanto, Europa sigue avanzando en una agenda que sigue utilizando la misma receta antigua de más austeridad, mientras que los gastos gubernamentales siguen creciendo. Como hemos explicado aquí, en múltiples ocasiones, tanto España como Europa están – intencionalmente – pasando por un ciclo vicioso que no dará lugar a la reducción del déficit o el rescate de las economías que son castigadas por la deuda.

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Brussels sees darker times for Spain and Europe

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | NOVEMBER 6, 2012

Brussels sees no green grass across the fence when it comes to an economic recovery. The economic forecasts for 2013, which will be made public on Friday, will describe a dark and rainy future for Spain and most likely the rest of Europe.

Forecasts are just that, good or bad omens based on leading indicators. But it remains to be seen whether or not they are right. But if the predictions issued by Brussels become reality, that reality will mean serious trouble for Spain and the rest of Europe. The European Commission anticipates that the GDP falls 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2013.

Spanish government forecasts were more hopeful before the statement from the EU with phrases such as “We emerge from the crisis” and “there are hopeful signs”. These phrases were issued by the Minister for Employment, Fatima Banez, who had said that Spain would see a contraction of 1.5% for this year and a decrease of 0, 5% for 2013.

Next to the real exit from the crisis, the troubling data made public by Brussels is the government’s deficit. The massive austerity measures adopted by Spain only helped reduce the deficit by a meager 0.2 %. The painful measures that combined tax increases with deep cuts in expenses related to social programs did not work; just as it was intended to. The deficit will end the year at 8%, according to the Commission, but this number does not take into account the effect of recapitalization of banks. Expect the Spanish deficit to be much larger.

For 2013, the fiscal gap is 6%, and 5.8% by 2014. These numbers again do not include the bailouts of the banking system and the possible bailout of Spain as a whole. As predicted months ago, Spain will not be able to lower its deficit to 3 % of the GDP, which is the target requested by Brussels. That leaves three possibilities. The first is to extend the deadlines to meet targets, which has been demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Brussels. This alternative is now getting stronger and is supported by several countries that are hanging from the debt cliff.

The second is to ask Spain for additional efforts. That is, more austerity and spending cuts, which as it has been seen in Greece, would result in no solution whatsoever. Most economists expect that agreements reached during future meetings will include a combination of both austerity and an extension for Spain and the other countries to reach their deficit goals.

Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, expected a deficit of 7.3% this year, 4.5% next year and 2.8% in 2014, far below the projections made by analysts and official data from both Brussels as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for next year and the next.

The Commission did not comment yesterday on the data. Clearly on all forecasts, Brussels and the Spanish government, weigh several unknowns, especially those relating to the effect of the increase in VAT (a real social experiment, with the country in recession) and the tax amnesty.

However, the Vice President and Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, gave some clues in Madrid yesterday about the situation: government budgets for 2013 and associated economic forecasts show the efforts being made by both sides — income and expenses — but the accompanying macroeconomic picture is “far from the consensus.”

Almunia also hinted that Brussels has the feeling that Spain has denied the complete evidence, the depth of the crisis and the need to act thoroughly. “The delayed reaction is too often associated with Spain,” he said. Speaking at the New Economy Forum, he called “giving in to defeatism” and explained that the crisis “has a solution, tha will be overcome and is beginning to be overcome.”

“Trees should not impede us all to see the forest,” said Almunia. But the trees are just too tall. Brussels projections that approximate the most to those of the Spanish government are related to public debt. And even in that section the figures speak for themselves: the debt will end this year at 83.7%, the next at 89.5% and will be at 93.9% of GDP by 2014.

One thing is for sure: there is no sign that shows when the debt will stop growing. Meanwhile, Europe continues to advance an agenda that keeps on using the same old recipe of more austerity, while government expenses continue to grow. As we have explained here in multiple occasions, both Spain and Europe are — intentionally — going through a vicious cycle that will not result in the reduction of the deficit or the rescue of the economies that are heavily burdened by debt.

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Madrid Delegate Salutes Police Brutality

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | SEPTEMBER 26, 2012

The government of Madrid has put all of its support behind the acts of police brutality that took place Tuesday in the Spanish capital. Voices of congratulation came from various bureaucrats who said the the actions taken by the National Police “demonstrated their professionalism in very difficult circumstances.”

The most vociferous of all public servants was the Spanish government delegate in Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes, who said in an interview for National Spanish Radio that the police “received a disproportionate attack” with stones, screws, bottles” and other objects. The Government delegate “absolutely” defended police actions and accused protesters of “extreme violence”.

Some political parties such as PSOE and IU have denounced police actions as “repressive”, “disproportionate” and even “excessive”. The protest, called 25-S Surround the Congress prompted the local government to protect the Congress building with 1,400 armored riot police, who in their fights with protesters, resulted in the imprisonment of 35 people with 64 others wounded.

The Madrid delegate compared the protests to the February 23 coup blaming the incident on “radical and anti-establishment people” and regretted that the demonstration did not end in “peaceful” manner. Speaking later in the Madrid Assembly, Cifuentes detailed what she called a “proper and proportionate” by the police who according to her were “very professional” while “repelling aggression” from demonstrators.

She added that she had no knowledge of attacks on journalists, police excesses or failures by police officers to identify themselves should a protester requests it. She said that “if there has been a violation of the law, we will act accordingly.”

“If the police had not acted as they did, the protesters would have entered the Congress”, said Cifuentes who condoned the lack of identification of the anti-riot police saying that protesters sometimes attempt to photograph the badges, so they wear them underneath their protection vests. In the past, protestors have posted the badge numbers and photos of riot police officers on social networks and called for full investigations on their violent acts.

The Madrid delegate continued to accuse demonstrators of using “tactics” to “provoke the police.” She said that some people posted manual on the internet on how to provoke police, but she presented no proof that those people were part of the organization that called for the demonstration or that any of those individuals were in any way connected with the demonstrations.

“Yesterday was a clear example of this,” said Cifuentes, who pointed out some of these “tactics” as “drop to the ground when required by the police with their hands on their heads to make look like police abuse or scream when they are subject to detention. “The assembled made good use of the whole repertoire” to give a sense of “police brutality”.

In the halls of Congress, the Interior Minister Jorge Fernandez Diaz, has also supported police actions against the protestors and has called their actions as “extreme violence”. In his view, the police acted “magnificently” and “did their duty” to “some protesters who used too much violence.” Fernandez added that the police “fulfilled the law in particularly complex circumstances” and justified the actions taken by anti-riot police. “I commend the police, who acted extremely well and thanks to them the intention to illegally and unconstitutionally occupy Congress and coerce its members did not succeed”.

Demonstrations in front of Congress are prohibited when parliamentary activity is ongoing, which officials said was what prompted government to consider it as an illegal coup. In Spain the Criminal Code defines the protests before the House of Representatives as punishable with jail if they disturb the “normal functioning” of the Chamber.

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The ‘Spanish Autumn’ Begins now

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | SEPTEMBER 26, 2012

The ‘Spanish autumn’ is here. The same pictures we saw months ago in Greece and Portugal, are now popping up in Madrid. The Spanish people went out by the thousands on Tuesday to tell their government they are angry and that the people cannot take it anymore. Spain is being pushed to the limit and unfortunately it is just the beginning.

The discontent of the Spanish citizens due to the cuts and their distance from the political class flooded the streets of Madrid on Tuesday. Thousands of people, many of which arrived from other regions, came to support activists who gathered outside Congress to show their dissatisfaction about the way the Spanish government is handling the crisis.

Although the organizers insisted until the last moment that the protest was a peaceful one, Spanish police launched themselves against them, which increased the tension between the two groups. According to police records, 26 protesters were detained while 64 others were wounded. A total of 16 people were taken to the hospital due to their serious lesions. Among the injured are 27 police agents.

Riot police tried to disperse the protestors once again at 9:00 pm after they entered the square near Congress.

Many congregants tried to flee by running through streets surrounding the Congress. Police said some violent demonstrators started throwing bottles, batteries and other items. Some participants in the protests in Madrid beat police agents after they found themselves trapped between two police security rings. The police then charged against protesters, which rendered many of them with bloodied heads.

Throughout the evening, attendees attempted demonstration as close as possible to Congress, which is surrounded by 13 small streets. The Delegate, Cristina Cifuentes, insisted that demonstrations were prohibited during Congress sessions.

The main goal of the protest, carried out under the name ‘Surround Congress’ was to express people’s concern about the current economic conditions in Spain and to start a constitutional process, said organizers of the protest. The frustration of many of the protesters was visible.

“I came to show my suffering face to the politicians,” said Mamen GuBas, an unemployed 41-year-old man from Bilbao. Among those attending were outraged but also unemployed students, housewives and elderly people from Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia.

Protesters were harassed by police even before they arrived to their last stop in Madrid. The bus they were traveling in was approached by police to identify the occupants. “I ask our representatives to look after the people and protect financial markets,” said Joaquin Sanchez, a priest from Murcia.

More than 1,300 policemen from 30 regions of the country were sent to Madrid to watch over the protesters. Most of them belong to Police Intervention Unit (PIU) an organ of the National Police.

In total there were three security rings around Congress, two of which were closed and bolted before six o’clock. A group of dog handlers plus some cavalry units completed the operation.

Spanish Government still not listening

The government led by Mariano Rajoy not only ignores the calls of the people to stop the handover of Spain to the European bankers, but it seems it actively continues to negotiate the so-called ‘financial rescue’. A report by the Financial Times of London reveals that both the European Central Bank and the European Commission are advising the Spanish government on how to request the rescue.

The ‘Times’ says in an editorial that these negotiations are “politically understandable” and notes that “Madrid is keen to avoid the humiliation involved in having the European bailout conditions being dictated by the bankers.” It seem then that the Rajoy administration has been lying throughout the whole process.

At first, Rajoy had said that the rescue would not be necessary, but his comments have been changing ever since Spanish ‘communities’ began requesting financial aid. Spain will then introduce more painful fiscal and structural reforms as a package developed ‘in house’, when in reality those will be conditions imposed by Brussels in a complete loss of sovereignty.

If those Spanish protesters think they are living in difficult times now, they have seen nothing. The pain to come will be greater once Spain requests and approves the financial rescue package now being discussed between their leaders and the European bankers.

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Spanish People Take it to the Streets of Madrid

Citizens protesting against harsh austerity measures were met with violence from the police.

AFP | JULY 20, 2012

Spanish police fired rubber bullets and charged protestors in central Madrid early Friday at the end of a huge demonstration against economic crisis measures.

The protest was one of over 80 demonstrations called by unions across the county against civil servant pay cuts and tax hikes which drew tens of thousands of people, including police and firefighters wearing their helmets.

“Hands up, this is a robbery!” protesters bellowed as they marched through the streets of the Spanish capital.

At the end of the peaceful protest dozens of protestors lingered at the Puerta del Sol, a large square in the heart of Madrid where the demonstration wound up late on Thursday.

Some threw bottles at police and set up barriers made up of plastic bins and cardboard boxes in the middle of side streets leading to the square and set them on fire, sending plumes of thick smoke into the air.

Riot police then charged some of the protestors, striking them with batons when they tried to reach the heavily-guarded parliament building.

The approach of the riot police sent protestors running through the streets of the Spanish capital as tourists sitting on outdoor patios looked on.

A police official told AFP that officers arrested seven people while six people were injured.

The protests held Thursday were the latest and biggest in an almost daily series of demonstrations that erupted last week when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced measures to save 65 billion euros ($80 billion) and slash the public deficit.

Among the steps is a cut to the Christmas bonus paid to civil servants, equivalent to a seven-percent reduction in annual pay. This came on top of a pay cut in 2010, which was followed by a salary freeze.

“There’s nothing we can do but take to the street. We have lost between 10 and 15 percent of our pay in the past four years,” said Sara Alvera, 51, a worker in the justice sector, demonstrating in Madrid.

“These measures won’t help end the crisis.”

Spain is struggling with its second recession in four years and an unemployment rate of more than 24 percent.

Under pressure from the European Union to stabilise Spain’s public finances, the conservative government also cut unemployment benefits and increased sales tax, with the upper limit rising from 18 to 21 percent.

As Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party passed the measures with its majority in parliament Thursday, Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro defended them, insisting they were needed to lower Spain’s borrowing costs.

“There is no money in the coffers to pay for public services. We are making reforms that will allow us to better finance ourselves,” he said.

Protestors angrily rejected this claim.

“There isn’t a shortage of money — there are too many thieves,” read one sign hoisted in the Madrid crowd.

Critics say the government’s new austerity measures will worsen economic conditions for ordinary people.

Cristina Blesa, a 55-year-old teacher, said she and her husband would struggle to pay their son’s university tuition fees because of the cuts and tax hikes.

“We’re earning less and less and at the same time the price of everything is going up,” she said at the Madrid protest.

“Now with the rise in VAT everything is going to be even more expensive. It’s more and more difficult at the end of the month.”

Spain is due this month to become the fourth eurozone country, after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, to get bailout funds in the current crisis, when it receives the first loan from a 100-billion-euro credit line for its banks.

Eurozone leaders were expected to finalise the deal in a telephone conference on Friday.

Spain had to offer investors sharply higher interest rates in a bond sale on Thursday, suggesting investors remain worried over the country’s ability to repay its debts.

Protestors complained that they were being made to pay for the financial crisis while banks and the rich were let off.

“We have to all come out into the street, firefighters, street-sweepers, nurses, to say: enough,” said Manuel Amaro, a 38-year-old fireman in Madrid holding his black helmet by his side.

“If we don’t, I don’t know where this is going to end.”