Fed’s Massive Stimulus Had Little Impact: Greenspan

CNBC
June 30, 2011

The Federal Reserve’s massive stimulus program had little impact on the U.S. economy besides weakening the dollar and helping U.S. exports, Federal Reserve Governor Alan Greenspan told CNBC Thursday.

In a blunt critique of his successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Greenspan said the $2 trillion in quantative easing over the past two years had done little to loosen credit and boost the economy.

“There is no evidence that huge inflow of money into the system basically worked,” Greenspan said in a live interview.

“It obviously had some effect on the exchange rate and the exchange rate was a critical issue in export expansion,” he said. “Aside from that, I am ill-aware of anything that really worked. Not only QE2 but QE1.”

Greenspan’s comments came as the Fed ended the second installment of its bond-buying program, known as QE2, after spending $600 billion. There were no hints of any more monetary easing—or QE3—to come.

Greenspan said he “would be surprised if there was a QE3”  because it would “continue erosion of the dollar.”

The former Fed chairman himself has been widely criticized for the low-interest rate policy in the early and mid 2000s that many believe led to the 2008 credit crisis.

Bernanke, who took over for Greenspan in 2006, began implementing the quantitative easing program in 2009 in an attempt to unfreeze credit and prevent a collapse of the US financial system. The strategy has gotten mixed reviews so far.
On Greece, Greenspan a default is likely and will  “affect the whole structure of profitability in the U.S.” because of this country’s large economic commitments to Europe, which holds Greek debt. Europe is also where “half the foreign [U.S.] affiliate earnings” are generated, he added.

“We can’t afford a significant drop in foreign affiliate earnings,” Greenspan said.

Greenspan was also pessimistic about the U.S. deficit talks, saying he didn’t think Congress would reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling by the Aug 2 deadline.

“We’re going to get up to Aug 2 and I think on that night, we are not going to have the issue solved,” he said.

If that happens, he said, the U.S. would have to continue paying debt holders or risk major damage in global financial markets. As a result, “we will default on everything else.”

He added: “At that point, I think we’ll all come to our senses.”

The Collapse of Nations All By The Hand Of Corrupt Bankers

by Robert Chapman
International Forecaster
June 18th, 2011

As far as we can discern the US Treasury thus far has spent and borrowed about $100 billion from the federal pension accounts. Unless there is a vote on the cash debt extension prior to August 2nd, government will probably have borrowed some $250 billion to $300 billion. The Treasury is paying virtually no interest on this debt. Three-month Treasury bills are currently yielding zero percent. Our question is how will the funds be generated to fulfill the Treasury’s obligation to the pension fund? What happens if on August 2nd if legislation is not passed? Does this go on forever? We will keep you apprised on new developments.

The current situation regarding the state of recovery in the US has turned from precarious to dismal and as we predicted a year ago May we will have to be treated to QE3 something no one really wants, but as we said before it is inevitable. The Fed and their controllers, the member bank owners of the Fed, know the present approach doesn’t work and it is only a matter of time, as a result of their policies, when more stimulus will be needed, which in turn leads to more inflation.

Due to the current state of affairs Fed Chairman Bernanke has been making one appearance on TV after another. He gets grilled over and over again and he doesn’t like the public reception at all.

It should be firmly implanted in your mind that your masters in government and those controlling government brazenly and arrogantly believe that they know better what is good for you, than you do. That is why when they speak to you their answers are dripping with condescension – as if to say, how dare you question what we tell you. Fed Chairman, Mr. Bernanke, is a perfect example of this. He, others and his predecessors have created a false economy based upon perpetual debt and upon money and credit being created out of thin air. Today that is accompanied with zero interest rates, a combination that in time can only bring a falling dollar, inflation and a collapsing economy. Mr. Bernanke appears to believe that an increased supply of money has little or no effect on the comparison between money and the prices of goods. He has to be living in a fairy tale land. Thinking such as this can only end up making a bad economic situation worse.

Read Full Article…

China Warns on holding U.S. Assets

Reuters
June 7, 2011

The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday and a record low against the Swiss franc after a Chinese official said the greenback would continue to weaken versus other major currencies.

The head of the international payment department at the Chinese forex regulator also warned about the risks of excessive holdings of U.S. dollars.

The dollar index [.DXY  73.59    -0.36  (-0.49%)   ]fell to a low of 73.601, the lowest since May 5, while the greenback fell to 0.8328 Swiss francs on trading platform EBS a record low.

“China has been growing its share of U.S. securities quite aggressively in the past, and the threat that they will be  selling these holdings has always been there,” said Adam Myers, senior forex strategist at Credit Agricole.

“But this is not a credible threat as a sell-off will lead  to a steepening of the U.S. yield curve which will hurt the U.S. and the Chinese, who are dependent on the U.S. economy. But I do agree that the dollar is headed lower in the long term.”

The euro rose to its highest in a month, climbing to $1.4666 on EBS, up nearly 0.6 percent on the day. Traders cited option barriers at $1.47 which could check gains in the near
term.

The common currency had got a boost in early European trade after a senior government official said the Greek government expects parliament to vote on its medium-term austerity plan by the end of June, a move which will fulfil a condition to receive new international funding.

The euro has gained more than 4 percent from its May 23 trough. The immediate target for the common currency is $1.4732, a 78.6 percent retracement of its May 4 to May 23 fall.

A break of that level should take it back to the May 4 high around $1.4939, though many traders think the currency will need a signal from European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet this week that the institution is ready to raise rates in July.

Earlier in the session, the euro slipped after Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said the common currency was overvalued.

“Euro is still clear of crisis levels, but flows are very choppy and investors are awaiting a solution from the IMF, EU, ECB, the private bond-holders and Greece,” said Lena Komileva,
head of G-10 currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

“It is more of a momentum lift for the euro than anything fundamental.”

With market views mixed on the euro, implied volatilities on euro/dollar options have eased as few market players see the need to hedge against sharp moves in the pair. One-month
euro/dollar volatility slipped to around 11.40 percent, near its lowest in a month.

Bernanke in Focus

While the euro hit one-month highs, worries about a faltering U.S. economy have boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates lower for longer, making
the dollar an attractive funding currency.

A fall in U.S. shares to 2-1/2 month troughs is fanning expectations that the Fed is eager to keep rates low for a protracted period, with some market players even talking about
the possibility of QE3 after the current asset buying programme, dubbed QE2, is completed at the end of this month.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking on the U.S. economic outlook at 3:45 p.m. in Atlanta (1945 GMT) on Tuesday, his first appearance after Friday’s U.S. job data that cemented the view that the U.S. economy has hit a soft patch.

Against the yen, the dollar crept up to 80.22 yen, after a brief dip below 80.00 on Monday for the first time since May 5, helped by bids from Japanese importers.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.0687, moving further away from Friday’s four-week high of $1.0775 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold
and gave no hints of tightening in the immediate future.

Its statement surprised some market players by omitting a warning that policy would likely have to tighten in coming months to contain inflation, leading markets to trim the risk of
a move in July or August.

The Fed Distorts The Economy With Inflation

by Bob Chapman
International Forecaster
March 5, 2011

The Federal Reserve tells us we need inflation to overcome the overhang created by debt and its inflationary aspects. The inflation does not create jobs – it just distorts prices upward. We are told by the head of the Fed, Mr. Bernanke, that he can end inflation when he thinks it is necessary. That is not true, because if inflation ends deflation takes command and the economy collapses. There is no finely honed instrument for turning these two opposite effects on and off; thus, inflationary instruments have to be blunt and overused. That means more often than not that inflation is over implemented. This is the opposite of the Fed’s mandate of promoting price stability, full employment and in fact is used to prop up the banking system. Over the past three plus years the Fed has been attempting to assist the banks in getting rid of bad assets and these efforts may last for another fifty years. These banks hold more bad assets then they have ever held before. These problem assets are the result of excessive lending and speculation between 2003 and 2008, and low interest rates that lasted far too long.

The quality and existence were recognized in the credit crisis that began in 2007. Most of these impaired assets are still on bank books, but the Bank of International Settlements, the FASB, the accounting agency and the government say it’s perfectly fine to keep two sets of books. If you did that in your business you’d end up in jail, but it is perfectly fine for the financial sector and transnational banks to do so. That is what QE1 was all about – bailing out the financial sector and other elitist corporations. These bad assets, that haven’t been sold to the Fed, are frozen on the balance sheets of these institutions, perhaps in perpetuity.

Fed created inflation raises the real value of assets artificially, so that these bad assets appear to be appreciating when in fact they are not. Toxic securities that are being held by banks, brokerage houses and others, that were worth $0.30 on the dollar, are now worth even less. All the inflation in the world won’t change the value of these assets. It may help interim earnings, but it won’t help in the long run. These policies won’t work long term. The interest on debt now and in the immediate future will be greater than revenues generated. At the same time $900 billion is a nonsense figure. When all is said and done the figure will be almost double that at $1.7 billion. QE1 will provide for 14% real inflation in 2011 and QE2 will provide 25% to 30% inflation in 2012. QE3 will give us hyperinflation. Monetization will be king.

The die has been cast and it is disturbing to see Mr. Bernanke lying to Congress. What will he tell them when he has to admit he created $1.7 trillion, which has been monetized into inflation and that he still holds official interest rates at just above zero, but real rates on the 10-year T-note went to 4-1/4 then 5-1/4? The American public is going to be stunned.

Again, the Fed and the US banking system are in a box and they cannot get out. If they were to officially raise interest rates it would lead to financial collapse. If they do not want to raise rates they could curtail QE2 and as a result the economy would collapse, just like Japan did so in 1992 and they have been in depression ever since. Either choice would send unemployment to a U6 level of 37.6% matching that of 1933. Worse yet, if the Fed’s commitments were marked to market you would find the Fed to be insolvent, a condition that has existed for some time. It is not surprising that the Fed and its banker owners don’t want the Fed audited and investigated. Any sale of bonds by the Fed would drive bonds lower and yields higher putting downward pressure on the economy. Much of what the Fed is holding is MBS and CDO’s from QE1, when they bailed out lenders and select transnational conglomerates and insurance companies.

Such actions would render the Fed officially insolvent, which in fact they are already. Just to show you how terse the situation is their capital is about $60 billion and they have about $3 trillion on the balance sheet. Now you can understand why real interest rates have to be held low. The stock and bond markets have to be held up artificially so that the Fed’s balance sheet won’t collapse. What many do not understand is that almost all of what is on the Fed balance sheet has been created out of thin air and monetized. Part of that hot money and credit has offset the deflationary undertow; part is exported in dollar foreign balances and the rest of the inflation pass into the economy. This is the beginning of out of control inflation and the Fed is well aware of it. They quite frankly are not concerned that people lose their life savings. They only care about saving the financial sector, which owns the Fed, the government and transnational conglomerates.

Inflation will not stimulate the economy. It will hinder it and not create jobs, which is already evident. It is all lies, smoke and mirrors and psywar.

QE1 and QE2 have spread across the world exporting part of US inflation. This inflation gets stronger daily enveloping the financial world. Food prices have gone ballistic and in countries where food makes up 75% of income the result has been the overthrow of one government after another. Even the price of your clothes is going to triple. The cause of these problems lies with central banks and banks that control them in Europe and the US. It is just one giant fraud like too big to fail. There will be no recovery only continual efforts to sustain the criminal enterprise.

As inflation climbs, unemployment will grow and wages will remain stagnant so that the anointed can continue to accumulate wealth. The beneficiaries will as usual be the elitist connected corporations, all those crooks who do not go to jail. Soon profits for smaller and medium sized companies will diminish as they are forced to absorb part of price inflation. Needless to say, there will be no hiring.

People worldwide see the dilemma of the US, UK and Europe and that in part is why you are seeing turmoil that has had its beginnings in North Africa and the Middle East, not that the US, UK and Europe were involved in the uprisings, but the catalyst had been in place as well. The reason for change is higher food prices. The world public is tired of tyrants and governments that refuse to answer the needs of the people. Again, part of the reason for change is the discovery that these dictators and those who control governments have to be dispensed with. You might say, as Saudi Arabia goes, so goes the Middle East and North Africa. If the so-called monarchy falls in Saudi Arabia the entire region is up for grabs. That would spell the end of the petro dollar, which would signal the demise of the dollar. That is something to be aware of and to contemplate.

As you know, historically when you have bad episodes such as those we are seeing in North Africa and the Middle East that the dollar has rallied strongly. Not this time. The dollar is falling not only against the six major currencies, but also versus gold and silver. We could be headed toward a test of 71.18 soon on the USDX. That makes US imports more expensive and exports cheaper, which would cause a balance of payments surplus. The downward dollar pressure would continue though, because the $1.6 trillion deficits would continue. We believe as history is evaluated Ben Bernanke as well as Alan Greenspan will be found to be totally incompetent. Today we have price and monetary inflation that are terrible. Eventually as the economy and coming hyperinflation becomes manifest we will then see a fall we have all been anticipating for years into deflationary depression.

After three attempts to rally past 82 the dollar in the USDX has faltered again, this time to 76.48. There is technical support at 76 and fundamental support at 74 and 71.18. Current weakness is systemic, but it is being aided by QE2 and stimulus 2.

Read Full Article…