Brazil Central Bank cuts GDP growth forecast

AFP | DECEMBER 20, 2012

Brazil’s Central Bank on Thursday cut its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 1.6 percent to 1 per cent, confirming a marked slowdown in Latin America’s biggest economy.

In September, the Bank had already revised its forecast downward from 2.5 percent to 1.6 percent.

Thursday, the bank also revised its inflation estimate for 2012 to 5.7 percent, up from 5.2 percent. The new projection is well above the official target of 4.5 percent.

Market analysts have been predicting 1.5 percent GDP growth for Brazil this year, a projection similar to one by the International Monetary Fund in October.

The IMF also expects Brazil to fare worse than its partners in the BRICS bloc of emerging powers, predicting 7.8 percent growth for China, 4.9 percent for India, 3.7 percent for Russia and 2.6 percent for South Africa.

Brazil’s economy grew just 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2012 compared with the previous three months, signaling a weaker than anticipated recovery, the Brazilian statistics office said late last month.

The economy lost steam last year due to the global slowdown, with GDP growth at 2.7 percent, down from a sizzling 7.5 percent in 2010.

Spanish public debt reaches 77.4% of GDP

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | DECEMBER 14, 2012

Government debt in Spain grew another 1.55% in the third quarter with respect to the second quarter to reach 817.164 million euros, or the equivalent to 77.4% of GDP. This is the highest level ever since the cork popped out of the crisis bottle in 2008.

According to data released by the Bank of Spain, the rise is a result of the increased debt of the central government, which has added 2.24% more to the total reached before this quarter, 695.519 million euros, and that represented 65.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Meanwhile, state government debt declined by 0.48% to 167,460 million euros, or the equivalent to 15.9% of GDP, while the debt of municipalities fell 2.65%, to 43.802 million euros, which is equal to 4.1% of GDP.

Along with the release of data for the third quarter, the Bank of Spain has also updated the second to include the impact of the debt payment plan to Spanish lenders, although the changes do not affect the total amount.

Thus, at the end of the second quarter sovereign debt had grown by 14.9%, placing the burden of debt on GDP at 15.9%, the highest in history and two points over the previous quarter.

Additionally, local businesses increased their debt by 22% in the second quarter, raising the ceiling to 4.3% of its debt to GDP margin, a level that had not been seen before. When it comes to autonomous communities, Catalonia is the most indebted in absolute terms, with 45.754 million euros of debt at the end of the third quarter, followed by Valencia with 25,574,000 million and Andalusia with 18,495,000 million.

In relative terms, Castilla-La Mancha ranks first as an indebted community, with a debt equivalent to 5.7% of GDP, and is followed by Valencia (25%), Catalonia (23%) and Baleares (20.3 %). At the end of the third quarter, public companies owed 55.973 million euros or 5.3% of GDP, which means 0.81% more than in the previous quarter.

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Spanish Government makes official the Looting of Pension Funds

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | SEPTEMBER 29, 2012

It did not take too long for the Spanish government to dip into the rapidly disappearing pension fund reserves. After presenting its 2013 budget, the Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro announced that the government led by Mariano Rajoy will make use of Social Security, retirement and other supplemental funds to help with the liquidity problems the central government faces as it becomes more expensive for Spain to meet its obligations.

The Executive now counts the 3,063 million from the Social Security Reserve Fund as part of its budget, which it now has stolen from Spanish people who saved and paid into the system for decades. The Social Security Fund has become the piggy bank to obtain quick cash after the Social Security administration itself had tapped into the reserve at the beginning of September, because it did not have enough money to make the payments to its contributors. Ironically, the government has also announced an increase of 1% in pension payments for 2013, which makes one wonder where will the money come from if the system cannot even afford to send the checks out now.

The Government approved the reform plan imposed by the European Union which is a commitments from the Memorandum that opens the door to ask for financial assistance in the form of credit to bailout Spanish banks with a maximum of 100,000 million euro, but that consultants estimate will be of around 53,000 million euros.

The State Budget for 2013 is included in the so-called Spanish Strategy for Economic Policy and a plan that includes up to 43 laws specified in the Official State Gazette (BOE).

The macroeconomic conditions used to create this new budget have not changed from the last time which was filed with the same spending ceiling. Thus, the official forecast remains that GDP will contract by 0.5% in 2013. This is a very optimistic figure when compared to other analysis services such as the one issues by Citi, who expects a decline of 3.3%.

State spending will grow in 5.6% in 2013, mainly due to interest on the debt in the next year, which will amount to some 10,000 million euros. The total amount to be paid in interests for loans requested by the Spanish government will reach nearly 38,000 million euros.

The Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, said that this budget contains more spending adjustments than changes in income. In it, 58% corresponds to expenditures, while 42% refers to income. She said that the government remains committed to social spending, which will represent 63.6% of total expenditure. The only items that increase are: pensions, grants and debt interests that make up the increase in government spending.

According to the budget, tax revenue projections for this year will be met fully. For 2013, it is expected that non-financial income will increase to 4% over budget, and 2.6% on budget execution.

The government expects to collect 4.375 million euros with the implementation of new tax measures, increasing taxes and fees included in the 2013 budget. The greatest impact on revenue will come from corporate taxes, the document says, by eliminating the deduction for depreciation for large companies, which will provide 2.371 million euros.

It creates a new 20% tax on lottery prizes, which will affect 40% of the prizes that exceed 2,500 euros. In total, the tax will add 824 million euros to the state coffers. Taxes on net worth will collect 700 million euros. These 1524 million euros will join together with 90 million euros that the government will obtain from eliminating the tax deduction on the purchase of primary residences, which was announced last July.

With these figures, the government has assured Europe that it will comply with its goal to keep the deficit below 4.5% of GDP for 2013.

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Do away with Reserve Currencies and Centralized Financial Control

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | SEPTEMBER 13, 2012

For way too many years, the United States has enjoyed an unfair advantage with respect to the rest of the world: most international commerce is conducted in US dollars. Both friends and foes of the US have had to purchase raw materials, parts, finished products, pay tariffs and exchange rates in dollars because the world saw the American currency as a strongly positioned instrument that was backed by the economic and military might of the United States.

The result of having a reserve currency, both for the US and for the rest of the world is clear: Americans have enjoyed decades of bounty because almost anything that is necessary to live is paid for and purchased in US dollars. From crude oil to food staples, countries and companies use the US dollar to complete most commercial transactions. But the bounty for Americans was not the only consequence — or goal, depending how you see it. Because the US dollar was the reserve currency of the world, its value was kept artificially high. People, companies and other countries bought US dollars to use them in their daily activities such as traveling expenses, for example.

The value of the currency, especially a fiat one like the US dollar is artificial because after the central bank decides to print money beyond what a country produces — GDP — in order to run a debt-based economy, it is just a matter of time before the wheels of the truck come off. In the case of the United States, three and a quarter of the four wheels have already fallen off. The US currency has been hyper-inflated in a controlled manner since the creation of the Federal Reserve System, which is the same system of centralized power used in almost every single nation in the world; no matter if it’s a developed, developing or underdeveloped country.

Today, the value of the dollar, the Euro, the Peso or the Real do not represent the capacity of a country to produce, innovate and sell goods in local, regional or international markets through bilateral or multilateral agreements. The value of currencies is set by banking institutions and then freely manipulated by artificially-managed markets, not real capitalism or free markets.

The kind of “commercial contract” that helped the US to sets its currency as the “world reserve currency” and that provided the unfair advantage against its business partners and competitors is now reaching its end. The rise of China as one of the largest producers of finished products — through questionable standards to say the least — along with the economically weaker position of the United States in the world stage, has prompted nations to seek alternative forms of completing commercial transactions that do not use US dollars. United States competitors, especially those who lend money to the country, realized that the United States will most likely default on its debt or will simply pay with a devalued currency which will not be worth much, so they’ve decided to use their own currencies instead of the US dollar.

For example, China and Russia have closed several agreements to realize commercial transactions in their own currency as supposed to using dollars. The Chinese and the Russians, it seems, learned that by using the Yuan and the Ruble, they are not only valuing their currencies, but are also avoiding to pay the “dollar tax”, or the cost of having to buy and sell in US dollars, which had kept them in a competitive disadvantage against their commercial and military foe.

The devaluation of the dollar due to banking manipulation conducted by the Federal Reserve or the weakening of the currency in international markets — is bad news for the US and the American people, because it means that if the dollar fails to keep its status as the reserve currency, everything will be more expensive for them: raw materials, food, energy, interest rates, etc. But worse than all of that is that the demand for US dollars in the world will significantly decrease, which in itself will turn the dollar into a less attractive way to pay for and sell goods and services.

The loss in value of the American currency will also worsen another problem: the US debt. The US has been for a long time the best debtor nation in the world, for its lenders thought that since the country had the world’s reserve currency would guarantee that their loans would be paid in full. But now, reality shows otherwise. The fall of the US dollar from the pedestal of “world reserve currency” will also make it more expensive for the US to pay its current debt as well as the debt it will incur into in the coming years and decades. The weaker the dollar is, the more expensive it becomes for the US to pay its debts. This scenario is now seen in Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal, who have handed their sovereignty to foreign banking institutions in exchange for “financial rescues”.

Although common wisdom would suggest that US indebtedness with China would be the worst possible situation while the dollar declines, there is actually a worse scenario and it does not involve China. The US main lender is not China anymore, but the Federal Reserve Banking System, a private institution that represents the interests of an international banking consortium located abroad, not in the United States.

The banking mafia will continue to willingly lend to the US because all debt created by the Federal Reserve in the name of the United States and its people will always have a way to be paid. The United States, just as many other countries in the world do, mortgage the lives of present and future people by taxing them to death in order to pay interests on the ever exploding debt. This ‘trust’ that the banking institutions have in the United States and other nations can only be broken if the US dollar fails as the world reserve currency. That is why the European bankers have created parallel fiat currencies such as the Euro, which they also intend to collapse in order to establish a sort of electronic untraceable form of currency.

At the same time and while it is still possible, wealthy individuals who have made their fortunes through deceitful practices, such as George Soros, as well as governments have begun a race to get rid of their dollar reserves — a fact that also weakens the US currency — and invest in gold, rare metals, silver and other valuable instruments. The divestment of funds from US dollars to other currencies or valuable metals or materials threatens to accelerate the fall of the once strong world reserve currency.

The decline of the US dollar has emboldened countries like China to seriously consider letting its currency fluctuate freely in the open market. This practice is set to begin at some point in 2015 and will continue until 2017, the Chinese have said. Do the Chinese feel that by 2015 the dollar will be weak enough that it won’t be able to directly compete with the Yuan? Perhaps. But in a financial world where almost everything is fake, there is no reason to believe that the American government or the banking institutions that it represents will not come up with a way to slow down or stop the collapse of its currency. Many financial experts expect the opposite, though. Some of them even believe that the collapse of the dollar will happen some time between the Winter of 2012 and the Spring of 2013.

If there is one thing the world has learned is that independent nation-states that establish commercial agreements in a bilateral or multilateral fashion are better off that those which are prisoners of a common currency with a centralized financial power system. The only reason why the world is dominated by common currencies and so-called unions is because those schemes facilitate monopolies and control, which is what the international banking mafia wants. The Euro is a clear example of how monopoly works perfectly well when a group of oligarchs intends to artificially create economies to later collapse them so that they can consolidate power. It works beautifully. For the rest of us, let’s do away with reserve currencies that provide unfair advantages as well as centralized power that only renders benefits for the Anglo-Saxon power elite.

Europe to experience economic contraction in 2012 and 2013

A new report issued by the European Central Bank forecasts a downward trend in growth and similar inflation.

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | AUGUST 9, 2012

The “let’s do the same thing and expect better results” crowd is getting what they wanted in the Euro zone. The latest analysis issued by consultants hired by the ECB explains that the European economy is bound to contract n 2012 and continue on that trend in 2013. No surprises here, unless you are one who believes in banker controlled economies as supposed to market driven ones.

The results of the corporate elite’s policies that were supposed to help bankrupt nations to stay afloat, while they think of new non-solutions, crashed to the ground in Greece but that did not stop the bankers from applying the same so-called solutions in Spain, which is a more significant member of the European economy. So the story repeated itself there as well.

The experts consulted by the ECB have revised their forecasts for growth in the euro area this year and forecast a contraction of 0.3% versus the 0.2% forecast in May, which speaks against all measures adopted so far by Brussels and its accomplices in the banking power structure. The non-solution at hand that is being proposed is to once again cut in interest rates.

In the survey, the European Central Bank (ECB) held between 16 and 19 July and published today in the August monthly bulletin, experts conclude that growth will continue its downward trend for this year and next. With this review, the regulator says that the euro zone has room to lower interest rates in September.

“The results also imply that inflation expectations for 2012 and 2013 have experienced virtually no change compared with the previous survey,” the ECB said.

As for the inflation forecast in the longer term, the average remains unchanged at 2%. That is under current conditions, which are not likely to stand, as the euro region digs itself into a deeper hole by continuing their policies of further indebtedness, which will only prolong and worsen the crisis. Consequently, inflation will certainly not stay at 2%.

The ECB president Mario Draghi said last week that “the governing board of the entity discussed a possible lowering of interest rates, but decided that it is not the right time.” Some experts expect the ECB to reduce the price of money, currently at 0.75% at its September meeting. As in other occasions, the European Central Bank will wait until the last minute to act, and its actions will not be the real solutions needed to bring the euro economy back. As we have now heard the main stream media confess it, that is the goal of the banking elites: to delay the collapse as much as possible while inflicting pain to the nations that are in financial trouble, because this will assure the maximum consolidation of power and resources.

Expectations of growth of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2012 have been revised slightly downwards by 0.1 percentage points and currently stand at -0.3%. For 2013, forecasts of growth in the euro area have declined significantly, by 0.4 percentage points to 0.6%. Under current conditions, once can expect, that even with cooked numbers, Europe will have no growth at all after 2013, especially if more nations such as Italy and France need to be rescued as well.

“The main determinants of the downward revisions are stepping up fiscal consolidation measures in some countries in the euro area and the greater uncertainty surrounding the resolution of sovereign debt crises,” the report said. Also, “maintaining the downside risks to growth in GDP in the euro area, resulting primarily from an escalation of the sovereign debt crisis.” And what is the ECB or the IMF doing to solve the sovereign debt crisis? Nothing. That is the big pink elephant in the room, but the bankers are simply staring at it without proposing a single solution. This inaction stems from the same reason explained above. A slow, prolonged collapse will assure better results for the bankers.

“These risks are also mentioned a further deterioration in confidence, increased levels of uncertainty and a fall in external demand as a result of a slowing global economy,” according to the ECB. The inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 obtained from the survey are located at 2.3% and 1.7% respectively, implying that not been revised figures for 2012 and have been revised 0.1 percentage point decline in the 2013.

This downward revision for 2013 was primarily “to lower prices for energy and raw materials, the less favorable growth prospects and the fact that wage pressures have been more limited,” according to the ECB. He added that inflation expectations for 2014 are at 1.9%. Risks to the outlook for price developments remain generally balanced over the medium term.

Upside risks come from further increases in indirect taxes, resulting from the need for fiscal consolidation, and some increases in energy prices over the medium term plan. The main downside risks are related to the impact of lower growth than expected in the euro area, especially due to the escalation of tensions in financial markets that could affect the balance of risks to the downside.